The global dollar has been strengthening amid potential adjustments to the monetary policy of the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed), yet Paraguay's market remains stable, with the U.S. currency quoted at G. 6,100 for retail sales. This stability has held since May, even as the DXY index, which measures the dollar against a basket of six major currencies, reached around 101.2 points by late June, marking its second consecutive monthly gain.
The Fed's decision to keep its benchmark rate between 3.5% and 3.75% in June, coupled with a more restrictive tone, suggests a possible 25-basis-point hike later this year, as indicated by the "dot plot," which projects the rate at 3.8% by the end of 2026. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh reinforced the central bank's commitment to stabilizing prices, which negatively impacted Wall Street indices, dropping roughly 1% after the announcement.
Meanwhile, the Paraguayan guaraní remains resilient. The reference exchange rate closed at G. 6,081.67 per dollar on June 29, its lowest level since the start of the year. During the last week of June, fluctuations ranged between G. 6,120 and G. 6,083, reflecting a trend of local currency strength. According to Rodrigo Ibarrola, an economist at the Center for Analysis and Dissemination of the Paraguayan Economy (Cadep), this scenario results from factors such as favorable interest rate differentials for guaraní-denominated instruments, foreign currency inflows from a record soybean harvest, and investment shifts toward local-currency assets.