El Niño is an ocean-atmospheric climate phenomenon characterized by abnormal warming of tropical Pacific waters, which disrupts rainfall and temperature patterns across the world, including South America. In Paraguay, previous episodes have caused severe flooding and more frequent tornadoes, making monitoring and institutional preparedness especially important for the local population.
The El Niño phenomenon is expected to reach Paraguay between July and August, bringing a spring and summer with heavy rainfall and high temperatures.
It is an ocean-atmospheric phenomenon monitored in the tropical Pacific, off the coast of Peru. When the temperature rises too much, it is classified as El Niño; when it drops excessively, La Niña occurs; and within the normal range, the phase is considered Neutral. Besides temperature, four or five other indicators need to align to confirm the event.
Previous El Niño episodes caused severe flooding and more frequent tornadoes in the country, such as in 1983 and between 1997 and 1998, when a television station even lost its antenna. Today, informal classifications like "Godzilla" are used in the media, but the technical scale divides the phenomenon into weak, moderate, and strong.
One of the main risks highlighted is flash flooding, with large volumes of rain in just a few hours. Even without El Niño, Luque has already experienced widespread flooding in March and April after five or six hours of intense rainfall. "It could become more frequent, and we need to prepare for that," officials said.
According to the official bulletin from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), the phenomenon is expected to develop in the coming months. The National Civil Aviation Directorate (Dinac) is already working together with other government agencies and private entities on prevention, including the Ministry of National Defense and the National Emergency Secretariat (SEN).
For the coming days, the forecast calls for southern winds and a significant temperature drop starting Sunday, with low rainfall accumulation between afternoon and night in the lower Chaco area and the Eastern Region. On Monday, the cold is expected to intensify with winds coming from the south.
"We will assess the situation. Between July and August, El Niño should be establishing itself. Initially, for the event to be confirmed, temperatures need to remain high, so we must monitor how many cold waves are still left in the winter," officials concluded.