Economic agents surveyed by the Central Bank of Paraguay (BCP) in the May 2026 Survey of Economic Variable Expectations (EVE) project inflation of 3.9% for the end of this year, exceeding the central bank's point target of 3.5% but still within the two-percentage-point tolerance range.
For the monetary policy horizon (HPM), the next 12 months, and the end of 2027, inflation expectations remained stable at 3.5%, aligned with the official target. In May, estimated monthly inflation was 0.6%, above the 0.4% recorded in the same month last year and the 0.5% projected in the April survey. For June, the expectation is 0.5%.
In the foreign exchange market, the median projection for the nominal exchange rate in May stood at G. 6,200 per dollar, below the G. 6,502 forecast in the previous survey. For June, the expected rate is G. 6,246, and for the end of 2026, agents estimate G. 6,475 per dollar, a lower value than projected last month. For the end of 2027, the forecast is G. 6,700.
Regarding economic activity, expectations for Gross Domestic Product (GDP) remained unchanged, with growth of 4.2% in 2026 and 4.0% in 2027. The Monetary Policy Rate (TPM) is expected to remain at 5.50% throughout May, June, and the end of 2026, with a reduction to 5.00% forecast only for 2027.