The Central Bank of Paraguay's (BCP) monthly survey of financial system agents, economists, and market participants indicates an increase in perceived inflationary risk for the end of 2026. According to the results of the May Survey of Economic Variable Expectations (EVE), the median inflation expectation for year-end rose to 3.9%, compared to 3.7% recorded in the previous edition. The figure exceeds the official target of 3.5% set by the central bank for the year.
For the end of 2027 and for the next 12 months, projections remained stable at 3.5%, aligned with the BCP target. Regarding monthly inflation, agents estimate that May 2026 will close at 0.6%, above both the 0.4% observed in May 2025 and the 0.5% forecast in the April survey. For June, the expectation is 0.5%. In April, monthly inflation was 0.8%, while the year-on-year change stood at 2.3%.
Regarding the exchange rate, the median expectation for the dollar exchange rate in May 2026 fell to G. 6,200, compared to G. 6,502 estimated in the previous survey. In practice, the US currency closed the period at G. 6,170 in the local market. For the end of 2026, agents lowered their projection to G. 6,475, below the G. 6,700 forecast in April. For 2027, the expectation is G. 6,700, lower than the G. 6,900 estimated previously.