The Institute of Paraguayan Professionals in the Electrical Sector (IPPSE) has warned that Paraguay faces an imminent risk of an energy crisis between 2026 and 2035. According to its Technical Report No. 1/26, the demand for power and energy consumption are projected to exceed the capacity of current sources if urgent measures are not taken.
Projections indicate that the national electrical system will reach a critical "orange alert" level in 2028, when power demand will reach 6,250 MW, requiring the incorporation of new generation sources. The situation worsens in 2030, when the country will enter a "red alert," consuming the entire maximum available capacity of 7,813 MW from the current power plants.
Regarding energy consumption, the "orange alert" will be triggered in 2029, when it hits the planning limit of 41,120 GWh per year. The "red alert" for this indicator will also begin in 2030, with the exhaustion of the maximum available energy of 51,400 GWh per year.
Experts point out that the projected power demand is growing by 8% per year, while energy consumption is increasing by 10% annually. They conclude that, starting in 2031, Paraguay will record progressive and sustained deficits in power and energy if the necessary expansion plans are not executed. Special intensive loads, such as crypto mining, have influenced recent consumption, but the completion of their contracts in 2027 will not free up significant additional capacity for other uses.
The window for action is limited, and any delay in incorporating new generation capacity will directly compromise the strategic reserve and the security of the national supply. Solar photovoltaic energy, accompanied by high-power battery banks, is identified as the most viable short-term alternative, due to its fast implementation time of approximately three years. It is estimated that investments of around $1 billion are needed to avoid an "energy winter."
Engineer Pedro Ferreira, former president of the National Electricity Administration (ANDE), reinforced the concern, warning that the country is "racing against the clock." He mentioned that Paraguay has already reached the maximum capacity of its three main hydroelectric plants (Itaipu, Acaray, and Yacyretá) and, on days of peak consumption, such as in the summer, it may be forced to import energy at much higher prices, around $100 per MWh, a price higher than what neighboring countries currently pay for Paraguayan energy.
In a recent development related to water management, the Itaipu Hydroelectric Plant closed the gates of its spillway on the night of Sunday, July 5, after seven days of intense activity. The measure was taken after the reservoir returned to its normal operational level of 220.29 meters above sea level. The scheduled opening of the spillway had been necessary due to constant rainfall upstream, which had raised the reservoir level close to the alert threshold of 220.40 meters.