Sociologist Carlos Peris says the violence and money circulating in Paraguayan municipal campaigns could lead to various scenarios, from attacks and robberies to self-staged coups. He also raised the possibility that members of a candidate’s own team could stage an internal coup to finance a future campaign.
His assessment follows a series of allegations. This week, Gustavo Fariña, a candidate for mayor of Ypané identified as ANR-HC, was shot at and survived by pretending to be dead in a ditch. He said he had received threats telling him to withdraw from the race. The incident recalls the killings of candidates in the 2021 municipal elections in Amambay, San Pedro and Alto Paraná.
Also this week, Elsi Sadoc, a candidate for city council in Hernandarias, and her husband were intercepted after he withdrew money from a bank in Ciudad del Este. The robbers took 150 million guaraníes. In Santa Rosa del Monday, Darcisio Aloisio Back Krampe, a candidate for city council, reported that between eight and 10 armed men dressed as fake agents of the National Anti-Drug Secretariat (SENAD), Paraguay’s anti-narcotics agency, broke into his home and stole money, jewelry and weapons valued at nearly 500 million guaraníes.
In April, Mario Gustavo Pineda Sosa, a prospective candidate for city council in Luque, reported the theft of nearly 300 million guaraníes from his pickup truck. Peris questions how much money candidates move outside formal records and who finances their campaigns, whose backers are often described only as “friends.”
In qualitative interviews conducted by his team, some candidates estimated they would need 500 million to 800 million guaraníes—or more—for “D-day,” Peris said, depending on the size and characteristics of the municipality. Some also said they set aside part of their resources for future elections when they believe they have little chance of winning the current race.
Peris says organized crime money is present in local campaigns and that municipal politics is more varied and more open to this influence than national politics. In his view, the combination could produce a more violent dynamic. The sociologist predicts the situation could worsen as October 4, the date of the municipal elections, approaches, given the volume of money expected to circulate during the campaign.
Mayors and city council members will be elected in 263 districts. Although the Colorado Party (ANR) is dominant nationally, Peris describes local politics as more diverse and subject to its own dynamics, including the influence of resources from organized crime.