The Ministry of Economy and Finance (MEF) is drafting the 2027 General Budget of the Nation (PGN) against a backdrop of persistent fiscal constraints, with low revenue and overdue debts to suppliers. Consulted experts project that the fiscal crisis will extend into the next year, making a return to the 1.5% of GDP deficit target, as established by the fiscal responsibility law, difficult.
Fernando Masi, director of the Center for Analysis and Dissemination of the Paraguayan Economy (Cadep), assesses that the real fiscal deficit in 2025 was 4% of GDP, not the 2% officially reported. He predicts the consequence for 2027 will be a drastic reduction in public investment, both in infrastructure and social spending. On the revenue side, Masi does not expect a significant increase, citing stagnant tax pressure, exemptions for sectors like tobacco and sugary beverages, and the accumulation of unpaid debts as structural problems.
Researcher Luis Rojas classifies the situation as a "chronic" and "structural" fiscal crisis, stemming from low tax pressure, between 10% and 11% of GDP. He warns that resources will continue to be insufficient to meet social demands and that public debt, which jumped from $3 billion in 2012 to $22 billion currently, will continue to grow. Rojas states that the government's main challenge is to increase revenue through tax reform and to combat waste and corruption, but he sees difficulties for progress in an election year.
Rodrigo Ibarrola, an economist at Cadep, avoids the term "crisis" but acknowledges a "disequilibrium" in public finances. He predicts the 2027 budget will have less availability of resources for new programs, forcing the government into stricter control of budget execution and the postponement of unfunded investments. Ibarrola also does not expect significant revenue growth and emphasizes that the electoral context could make it difficult to control what are considered rigid expenses.