The potential deal to supply electricity to Atome's future fertilizer plant in Villeta could represent a loss of $750 million to the Paraguayan state and to ANDE over 15 years, according to projections by engineer Pedro Ferreira, former president of the state electricity utility.
Ferreira says that granting a preferential rate to the foreign company would create a financial shortfall exceeding the $665 million in projected investment in the project. ANDE's current technical cost sits at around $45 per megawatt-hour (MWh), but is expected to rise starting in 2030 as the utility needs to incorporate more expensive generation sources. In light of this, Atome intends to pay, on average, just $30 per MWh for a block of up to 250 megawatts.
In a conservative scenario, with 150 megawatts and a projected technical cost of $50 per MWh, ANDE would absorb a negative difference of $20 million per MWh delivered. "If you multiply 1.5 million megawatts by 20, that gives you $30 million that ANDE will lose per year," Ferreira detailed.
On top of the operating deficit, there is the loss of foregone profit for the Paraguayan state. By allocating this large block of Itaipu energy to the industry in Villeta, the country will stop receiving the compensation for energy transfers currently paid by Brazil. "The moment you start withdrawing your energy from Itaipu and Brazil no longer withdraws it, Brazil stops paying the Paraguayan state $12.50," Ferreira explained. This dynamic represents another $20 million in annual losses, bringing the total negative impact to $50 million per year.
Ferreira also warns of what he considers a miscalculation in the diplomatic approach surrounding the negotiations on the annexes of the binational hydroelectric treaties. "If we place too little value on our energy, then we cannot expect neighboring countries to value it any better," he said. According to him, both Argentina and Brazil will use this subsidized price as leverage in discussions over the Itaipu treaties, noting that delivering the energy to Villeta entails millions in infrastructure costs and electrical losses of around 6 percent, which do not occur when the energy is delivered directly at the busbar.
Beyond the figures, the engineer questioned the social justification for the project, downplaying the massive job creation claims for this type of electro-intensive industry, which operates with very few staff at the plant. As an alternative, he proposes that the company itself extend its financing terms to 25 years, reducing operational quotas and paying the real price of energy, rather than burdening Paraguayan taxpayers.