The World Bank released its Global Economic Prospects report in June, highlighting that the conflict in the Middle East is putting pressure on global commodity markets, especially energy prices. This situation has been driving a slowdown in global economic growth, projected at 2.5% in 2026, with a particularly negative impact on emerging markets and developing economies, which are expected to record the lowest per capita income growth since the pandemic.
The report warns of adverse risks that include the escalation of hostilities, new disruptions in commodity markets, and additional geopolitical tensions. Nevertheless, it points out that the broader adoption of artificial intelligence could bring some growth benefits.
For emerging and developing economies, the slowdown is tied to rising production, transportation, and food costs, which drive up inflation and reduce purchasing power. However, the World Bank forecasts a future recovery, driven by price moderation and an improvement in global trade.
In Latin America and the Caribbean, moderate expansion is expected, with growth projected at 2.2% for 2026 and a recovery to 2.5% in 2027. In the specific case of Paraguay, despite the challenging international landscape, the World Bank's forecast maintains an optimistic outlook, with GDP growth estimated at 4.4% for this year.
On the other hand, the region encompassing the Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan is expected to be the most negatively affected, while South Asia remains the area with the fastest economic growth.
The World Bank also warns of prolonged risks such as disruptions in commodity markets, financial stress, trade policy uncertainties, and climate crises, which could influence the global economic outlook in the coming years.