The dollar was selling for about G. 5,940 at Paraguay’s exchange houses on Monday, August 31, 2026, while the reference rate of the Central Bank of Paraguay (BCP), the country’s monetary authority, stood at around G. 5,903. The level is close to the average values recorded at the end of 2018: G. 5,936.25 in November and G. 5,927.68 in December.
The difference between the retail selling rate and the BCP reference rate was G. 36.69 per dollar. The decline is moving in the opposite direction from the trend recently seen in some international markets and is reviving concerns among exporters, farmers and industries that receive revenue in dollars but have costs mainly in guaranis.
Economist Manuel Ferreira described the situation as unusual. “We are moving against what is happening in the world. In other economies the dollar is rising, while here it is falling,” he said. In his view, the guarani’s appreciation reduces the local-currency revenue of companies engaged in foreign trade and could undermine their competitiveness.
A draft from the BCP’s Monetary Policy Committee shows that the strengthening of regional currencies is not exclusive to Paraguay. Since the committee’s previous meeting, the Colombian peso had appreciated 5.1%, the Chilean peso 3.3%, the Peruvian sol 1.6% and the guarani 0.8%. The Brazilian real, over the same period, fell 1.3% against the dollar. The document links the movement to the global weakening of the U.S. currency.
In an additional explanation, Emil Mendoza, president of the Association of Exchange Houses of Paraguay (ACCPy), attributed part of the selling pressure to an unusual inflow of foreign capital. He said exchange houses had identified legal transactions that were uncommon compared with the 2021–2023 period, involving investors from Germany, Spain and Brazil. Mendoza said the company he runs had been receiving this type of funding since May, but he did not present an official consolidated figure for the entire system, which includes 24 authorized exchange houses, banks and finance companies.
For consumers and companies that buy abroad, a stronger guarani can reduce the local-currency cost of digital subscriptions, electronics, travel, courses, online advertising and services purchased outside the country. It also makes it easier to pay interest and principal on dollar-denominated debts. The effect is reversed for exporters and families receiving remittances, as the same dollar amount now yields fewer guaranis; international tourism in Paraguay may also become more expensive.
The BCP had not entered the market to curb the guarani’s appreciation, despite requests from export sectors. The external trend could change, however: statements by Kevin Warsh, president of the U.S. Federal Reserve, about the possibility of keeping interest rates high if inflation does not clearly move toward the 2% target contributed to a recent recovery in the dollar and a revision of investors’ expectations. In this environment, analysts recommend preserving funds intended for essential expenses and avoiding financial decisions based on a single exchange rate.