The dollar closed on Thursday, the 27th, at G. 5,950 for sale in the spot market and G. 5,929 in the interbank segment, its lowest level since early 2019. Over one year, the U.S. currency has fallen nearly 20% against the guarani; since January 2, 2025, the decline has reached 23%, while the DXY index, which measures the dollar against other currencies, fell 9.7%.
The guarani’s appreciation is associated with increased capital inflows, the settlement of export proceeds and the dollar’s international weakness. The exceptional harvest and perceptions of macroeconomic strength are also reinforcing the movement. Through July, total exports grew 25.2%, registered exports rose 20.5% and industrial-origin manufactured exports increased 35%.
The movement, however, has increased pressure from productive sectors on the Central Bank of Paraguay (BCP), the country’s monetary authority. The Paraguayan Chamber of Exporters and Marketers of Cereals and Oilseeds (Capeco), the Federation of Micro, Small and Medium-sized Enterprises (Fedemipymes) and the Paraguayan Chamber of Sustainable Industries (Cispy) are calling for greater predictability and measures to reduce the effects of the fluctuations.
Hugo Pastore, Capeco’s director, said farmers are facing costs in dollars and local expenses in guaranis just as the soybean planting season is about to begin. Fuel, transport, services, taxes and machinery operations become relatively more expensive when converted into the U.S. currency. The impact tends to be greater on small farmers, who have less financial room to absorb volatility.
Luis Tavella, president of Fedemipymes, estimates that exporters have lost 25% over one year when converting their revenues into guaranis. He also warned that companies could try to offset the loss in foreign markets by raising prices in the domestic market, although he does not currently see a generalized pass-through of the exchange rate to consumer goods.
In the real estate sector, Gonzalo Faccas, a board member of the Paraguayan Chamber of Real Estate Developers (Capadei), said predictability had been undermined because projects receive nearly all their revenue in dollars, while about 80% of their costs are in guaranis. Raúl Constantino, the organization’s president, explained that projects planned over two, three or four years must continually recalculate their costs, which could delay new investments.
The BCP maintains that the nominal exchange rate is not a monetary-policy target and should be determined by supply and demand. The institution may intervene to preserve orderly market functioning without countering trends considered compatible with economic fundamentals. Through August, it had neither bought nor sold dollars directly to the financial system, but it had accumulated US$328.4 million purchased from the public sector, reducing the potential supply of foreign currency.
Economist and former Finance Minister Manuel Ferreira also pointed to the expansion of carry trade, a strategy that seeks gains by exploiting interest-rate differences between currencies. While guarani-denominated operations are traded at between 10% and 14%, dollar investments are around 5%. In his view, an alternative to directly buying dollars would be to increase liquidity and lower market rates, reducing the incentive for the strategy.
The BCP’s Economic Variables Expectations Survey projected in July that the dollar would be at G. 6,300 at the end of 2026. In August, the estimate fell to G. 6,150, below the current rate. Year-on-year inflation stood at 1.6% in July, compared with a target of 3.5%; the monetary policy rate was 5.50%, and net international reserves totaled US$11.6979 billion at the end of that month.