Paraguay is on the brink of an energy crisis that directly threatens its competitiveness and economic growth in the short term. Local electricity consumption recorded a disproportionate increase of 21% in just the first four months of the year, surpassing official projections and exposing an imminent generation deficit that could turn a historic advantage for the country into a brake on development.
ANDE faces a critical delay of about two years in the execution of its Master Works Plan. Projections indicate that current demand has already reached levels that were not expected until 2027, meaning that key transmission and distribution projects are running behind schedule. A similar situation is seen in plans for new power generation sources.
The main obstacle to keeping pace with demand is financing. To sustain growth, the country needs an average investment of US$ 900 million per year over a decade. However, current investments stand at around US$ 340 million per year in transmission and distribution.
Energy expert engineer Fabián Cáceres, a former technical manager at ANDE, warned that the country would exhaust all its energy surplus from Itaipú and Yacyretá by 2029, or sooner in the event of adverse weather factors. "ANDE is far behind its planning deadlines. There were generation projects that should have come online in 2025. Transmission works are urgently needed; the system is getting weaker. Over time, resolving all of this will become more expensive. One of ANDE's problems is its financial health; it has been in the red since 2021. One of the problems is the tariff; there is no technical tariff," he said.
Engineer Pedro Ferreira, a former president of ANDE, was also emphatic in warning about the gap in the works execution plan. "The clearest example is the 500 kV Itaipú – Valenzuela transmission line, which should already have been completed. This is a serious case with regard to transmission," he stressed. Ferreira explained that the delays are a direct consequence of the state's financial shortcomings and emphasized that ANDE's tariff structure must generate the necessary resources to ensure investments.
ANDE's president, Félix Sosa, admitted that although infrastructure investments have grown in recent years, these figures fall short of the "optimum." The official reported that annual investments stand at US$ 350 million and highlighted that the process for the first private generation projects has been initiated.
To avoid an imminent energy deficit, ANDE plans to inject around US$ 9 billion in new generation technologies by 2043. The financial shift, detailed in the latest Master Plan, prioritizes the installation of photovoltaic parks and lithium battery banks, especially in the Chaco region, as well as the modernization of the national hydroelectric park.
The main strategy, called Alternative A, focuses on diversification through non-conventional renewable energy. It envisions the massive installation of solar panels, taking advantage of the speed of construction, estimated at two years, while lithium-ion battery banks will be incorporated to mitigate the intermittency of solar power, allowing the energy generated during the day to be shifted to cover peak nighttime demand.
ANDE also considers it essential to move forward with projects for new small hydroelectric plants and other binational ventures. Paraguay is also exploring the nuclear energy option, having signed agreements with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) for professional training and the design of the legal framework.