President Santiago Peña's recent visit to Taiwan revived diplomatic tensions between Paraguay and China, in an international scenario marked by growing geopolitical rivalry among Beijing, Taipei, and the United States.
After Peña's expressed support for the Taiwanese government during his official trip, China hardened its rhetoric toward Asunción, even calling Paraguayan leaders "pawns of Taiwan," and reiterated the demand that Paraguay break relations with the island and adopt the "One China" principle.
For Paraguayan foreign policy expert Julieta Heduvan, Paraguay's position is not new, but the country's level of international exposure has changed. According to her, the increased tensions in the Taiwan Strait have made Paraguay occupy a more visible place in the global dispute.
"Paraguay's position of recognizing Taiwan inevitably places it at the center of an international dispute, and that is not new. What is new is the visibility Paraguay currently has due to this issue," she said in an interview. She added that, "as the situation in the Taiwan Strait becomes more tense, Paraguay's differentiated position becomes more evident and, consequently, external pressures also increase."
Heduvan recalled that for many years Paraguay was practically off China's radar, with minimal direct pressure except for occasional episodes such as "vaccine diplomacy" during the pandemic. However, in the last two years, Beijing's tone has changed considerably.
"Today we see much more direct messages from China to the Paraguayan government on the issue of recognition, as well as more fluid links with local political and economic sectors, seeking to more forcefully install the debate on the relationship with Taiwan," she explained.
The analyst considered that this hardening coincides with a phase of greater hegemonic competition between the United States and China, which also alters Paraguay's strategic place on the international chessboard. "That China has called Paraguayan leaders 'pawns of Taiwan' is language that was not used before and reflects how much the temperature has risen," she analyzed.
However, Heduvan highlighted that the scenario represents not only risks but also negotiation opportunities. "Paraguay today has more negotiating weight than it had five years ago, precisely because its position matters more. This translates into a greater ability to demand conditions from Taiwan or even China, but also into greater attention from Washington," she said.
The expert concluded that the country faces a delicate diplomatic balance: while its international relevance increases, external pressures and the political costs of maintaining a differentiated stance grow. "It can be advantageous and disadvantageous at the same time. They are two sides of the same coin: obtaining greater diplomatic advantages comes with more pressures and costs," she concluded.