Paraguayan exports grew in volume but barely increased in guaraníes in the 12 months ended July 2026. The country shipped 4.07 million additional tons, a 27% increase, while revenue rose from G. 81.97 trillion to G. 81.89 trillion.
A study prepared for the Paraguayan Chamber of Exporters (Capex), using official data from the Central Bank of Paraguay (BCP), attributes the result mainly to the fall in the dollar. The exchange-rate effect reduced revenue by G. 15.45 trillion, equivalent to about US$2.342 billion and 19% of the value exported during the period.
The analysis estimates that the increase in volume would have added G. 22.38 trillion to revenue. Changes in international prices, however, reduced that gain by G. 7.01 trillion. Excluding exchange rates, exports would have generated G. 97.34 trillion, 19% more than in the previous period; after conversion into the local currency, the total remained virtually unchanged.
The impact affects companies that produce in Paraguay and pay most of their costs in guaraníes but receive most of their revenue in dollars. On average, each exported dollar was worth G. 1,244 less than in the previous period, a 16% decline. Capex warned that prolonged margin compression could influence investment, production capacity, employment and the expansion into new markets.
The effect appears across different segments. In primary products, it reached about US$869 million, while export volume increased 31%. In Manufactures of Agricultural Origin (MOA), the estimated loss was US$861 million; in Manufactures of Industrial Origin (MOI), it was approximately US$400 million.
Soybeans illustrate the difference between physical and financial performance. Shipments grew 30% and the international price rose 3.2%, a combination that could have increased revenue in guaraníes by 34%. The actual increase, however, was 10%, after an exchange-rate impact equivalent to US$681 million.
At the same time, companies and investors have been increasing their use of protection against currency fluctuations. Paraguay’s foreign-exchange forward-contract market grew 30% through August year on year. These contracts allow the price of a currency to be fixed in advance for a future date, giving exporters, importers and companies with dollar-denominated debt greater predictability.
In July, the accumulated value of forwards had reached US$1.721 billion, up 22.8% over 12 months. The expansion indicates greater use of risk-management instruments, especially in operations involving capital goods, fuel, industrial inputs and foreign trade.
For Capex, hedges help manage volatility but do not eliminate the structural competitiveness challenge faced by companies whose costs are in guaraníes and revenues are in dollars. The organization argues that economic authorities should consider this effect when assessing conditions in the export sector and the need to increase the added value of external sales.