The European Union’s two-year sanitary suspension of Brazilian beef creates an opportunity for Paraguay to expand its presence in the European market, but it could also intensify competition in destinations important to Paraguayan production.
The measure was linked to the use of substances not authorized under European standards. With Brazil temporarily out of this market and facing volume limits in China, European Union importers will have one fewer South American supplier, which could favor Paraguay’s share of the 99,000-tonne quota allocated to Mercosur under the trade agreement in force since May 2026.
Paraguay intends to secure at least 25% of that volume. Daniel Burt, manager of the Paraguayan Chamber of Meat, said the European decision also strengthens the country’s sanitary position, as its livestock industry has passed international audits. According to Burt and the Paraguayan Chamber of Meat, the available space will depend on how the quota is actually distributed among the bloc’s countries.
The possible gain in Europe comes with a possible domino effect in South America. To sell its surplus, Brazil may seek alternative destinations and negotiate more aggressively, especially in Chile, which absorbs nearly 30% of Paraguay’s beef exports.
A larger Brazilian supply in the Chilean market could put pressure on prices and make it harder for Paraguayan slaughterhouses to compete. Brazil may also adjust its negotiations to preserve space in the United States’ emergency quota, increasing competition for buyers outside the European Union.
In Paraguay’s domestic market, the immediate impact is considered limited. Supply remains stable, supported by increased slaughtering and the appreciation of the guarani, which helps cushion costs for consumers. For the export sector, however, the suspension creates an ambiguous situation: it reduces Brazilian competition in Europe but could shift it to regional markets where Paraguay already has an established presence.