The continued decline of the dollar against the guarani is negatively impacting revenue linked to foreign trade in Paraguay, according to the National Directorate of Tax Revenues (DNIT). With the exchange rate oscillating near G. 6,000, imported goods become cheaper when converted to local currency, reducing the value on which import VAT and tariffs are levied.
The national director of Tax Revenues, Óscar Orué, explained that the effect is “mixed”: on one hand, a lower dollar stimulates a greater volume of operations; on the other, from a fiscal perspective, nominal revenue falls. “Import values converted to local currency are lower and, consequently, even if the import volume remains or increases, taxes linked to foreign trade tend to record lower revenue,” he said.
DNIT data show that, through the close of April, the taxable value of imported goods in dollars grew 5.2%, but the 20.5% depreciation of the dollar caused a 16.2% reduction in the taxable base expressed in guarani. This behavior, observed for months, intensifies as the dollar gives way to the guarani, compromising the projections of the General Budget of the Nation (PGN) for 2026, which were prepared with an exchange rate of G. 7,800.
Orué highlighted that the situation mainly affects customs revenue, one of the sectors most sensitive to exchange rate variations. He indicated that, in the short term, the context will continue to pressure revenue, but that from the second half onward, interannual comparisons may stabilize due to the base effect, since from July 2025 the dollar began a downward trajectory. “The variations observed in revenue will more accurately reflect the real performance of economic activity and foreign trade, reducing the impact derived from the exchange rate,” he stated.
Asked about measures to mitigate the impact, Orué recalled that the exchange rate is an exogenous factor, beyond DNIT's reach. Still, the institution is strengthening control mechanisms, risk management, and oversight in both Customs and internal taxes, aiming to offset potential drops in customs revenue. “The goal is that any declines in revenue linked to foreign trade can be offset by better performance in internal taxes,” he said.
Despite the exchange rate scenario, DNIT maintains its tax revenue projection for this year unchanged. Orué explained that permanent monitoring of revenue sources and analysis of macroeconomic and sectoral variables allow sustaining the initial estimates. Strengthening voluntary compliance and greater administrative efficiency are part of the strategy to maintain revenue levels in a context of lower customs dynamism.