Paraguay is undergoing a demographic transition. Women are having substantially fewer children than several decades ago, people are living longer and the share of older residents is increasing. That does not mean, however, that Paraguay has already become an old society or that its population is immediately beginning to decline.
According to the latest figures from Paraguay's Instituto Nacional de Estadística (INE), the country has about 6.46 million inhabitants in 2026. The median age is 29.4 years. Of the total population, 1.59 million are under 15, 4.29 million are between 15 and 64, and 572,244 are aged 65 or older.
This means around 66.5% of the population remains in the 15–64 age group. Paraguay therefore still has a comparatively large working-age population, even as the older population grows.
INE and the UN produce substantially different figures
An international comparison reveals an important feature of Paraguay's demographic statistics: the current INE figures differ considerably from United Nations estimates.
| Dataset | Year | Population | Median age | Under 15 | Age 65+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INE Paraguay | 2026 | 6.46 million | 29.4 | 24.7% | 8.9% |
| UN World Population Prospects | 2025 | 7.01 million | 28.0 | 28.4% | 6.7% |
The difference in total population is particularly striking: the two series are separated by more than 550,000 people. A one-year difference in the reference date cannot explain a gap of that size.
INE recalculated its population projections following Paraguay's 2022 census. The UN World Population Prospects, by contrast, use an internationally harmonised estimation system designed to produce comparable demographic series for countries worldwide. The two systems can use different population baselines and different assumptions about fertility, mortality and migration.
These are therefore not simply two calculations applied to the same starting figure. They are separate statistical series. For current national planning, INE's post-census figures are the most direct Paraguayan reference. For comparisons between countries, the harmonised UN series is frequently used.
Paraguay can be young and ageing at the same time
There is no contradiction between the two descriptions. A median age below 30 means Paraguay remains young by international standards. Population ageing instead describes the direction in which the age structure is moving.
INE's long-term projections already show a declining share of children and adolescents combined with an increasing share of people aged 65 and over. Its ageing index stood at roughly 33 people aged 65+ for every 100 people under 15 in 2024. By 2050, the projection approaches 94.
The change therefore takes place over decades. It nevertheless matters for employment, healthcare, pensions and long-term care because the proportions of younger, working-age and older residents gradually change.
1.9 children per woman is a fertility rate, not a birth rate
INE gives Paraguay a total fertility rate of 1.90 children per woman in 2026 and projects 1.82 by 2031. The total fertility rate estimates how many children a woman would have over her lifetime if current age-specific fertility rates remained unchanged.
It should not be confused with the birth rate, which normally measures the number of births per 1,000 inhabitants.
A fertility rate of 1.9 is below the long-term replacement level, commonly estimated at around 2.1 children per woman in low-mortality populations. INE director Iván Ojeda noted in the interview that Paraguayan women had around seven children on average in the 1950s.
He cited factors including increased education, family planning and delayed motherhood. Births today are particularly concentrated among women aged 25 to 29.
That does not mean the population is already shrinking
Below-replacement fertility does not produce an immediate population decline. The existing age structure matters: when a country still has many young adults, births can exceed deaths for years even while each woman has fewer children on average.
INE's published long-term projection therefore continues to show population growth. Its 2024 revision rises from 6.37 million inhabitants in 2024 to around 6.62 million in 2030 and approximately 7.12 million in 2050.
What changes substantially is the pace. INE estimated annual population growth of around 0.71% in 2024, falling to approximately 0.18% by 2050.
The more accurate conclusion is therefore that Paraguay's population growth is slowing sharply. INE's currently published projections do not show the country's total population shrinking before 2050.
Emigration also shapes the demographic picture
Migration is the third major component of population change alongside births and deaths. In the interview reported by ABC Color, Ojeda put Paraguay's cumulative negative migration balance over the past 25 years at around 700,000 people. The strongest period of emigration was concentrated between 2000 and 2012, particularly towards Argentina, Spain, Brazil and the United States.
For Spain, Ojeda cited an increase from roughly 2,000 Paraguayans living there in 2000 to around 127,000 today. In that context, he said approximately 75% of those migrants were women of reproductive age.
The 75% figure should not be generalised to all Paraguayan emigrants. It was given in the part of the interview discussing Spain. Migration statistics can also differ according to whether they count citizenship, country of birth or registered residence.
According to Ojeda, the intense outflow eased from around 2014 onwards. At the same time, Paraguay increasingly receives migrants from neighbouring countries and Venezuela. The long-term demographic effect therefore depends on both emigration and immigration.
36,000 deaths: registered deaths are not the same as estimated deaths
The number of deaths also requires qualification. INE's vital-statistics report recorded 35,837 registered deaths in 2024, close to the frequently cited figure of around 36,000.
INE nevertheless estimated that approximately 39,225 deaths actually occurred during that year. Registered deaths therefore represented about 91.4% of the estimated total.
Life expectancy also differs substantially by sex. For 2026, INE gives 73.0 years for men and 78.7 years for women. Both figures are expected to continue increasing.
Paraguay's demographic window remains open
With roughly two-thirds of the population aged between 15 and 64, Paraguay remains in a potentially favourable demographic phase. A large working-age population can create economic opportunities when accompanied by productive employment, education and healthcare.
At the same time, the country needs to prepare for a larger older population. This affects pension financing, healthcare, care services, age-appropriate housing and opportunities for people who wish or need to remain economically active beyond traditional retirement ages.
The main conclusion is therefore not that Paraguay is suddenly becoming an old country. It remains comparatively young, but its demographic direction has changed: fertility is falling, people are living longer, the age structure is shifting and population growth is slowing.
The discrepancy between INE and UN figures also demonstrates that population estimates are not exact real-time headcounts. In Paraguay in particular, demographic figures should always be read together with the statistical series from which they originate.
Sources
- INE, population in 2026: https://www.ine.gov.py/noticias/2946/paraguay-sigue-teniendo-la-mayor-cantidad-de-su-poblacion-en-edad-productiva
- INE, national population projections to 2050: https://www.ine.gov.py/resumen/266/proyecciones-de-la-poblacion-nacional-por-sexo-y-edad-al-2050-revision-2024
- INE, demographic indicators: https://www.ine.gov.py/Publicaciones/Biblioteca/documento/266/Triptico.pdf
- INE, 2024 vital statistics: https://www.ine.gov.py/publication-single.php?codec=305
- UN World Population Prospects 2024: https://population.un.org/wpp/
- UN-based Paraguay 2025 demographic data: https://www.populationpyramid.net/paraguay/2025/
- ABC Color, original interview report: https://www.abc.com.py/nacionales/2026/09/15/nuevo-mapa-demografico-en-paraguay-la-natalidad-cae-y-la-poblacion-tiende-a-envejecer/