Economic agents surveyed by the Central Bank of Paraguay (BCP) have lowered their projections for the dollar in May and for the close of 2026. The monetary authority reiterated that it does not intend to intervene in the exchange rate, attributing the trend to global and local factors, such as the strengthening of the guarani and capital inflows.
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Moneda de Estados Unidos cuya cotización afecta los precios en Paraguay.
The latest edition of the Survey of Economic Variable Expectations (EVE) from the Central Bank of Paraguay (BCP) shows that surveyed economic agents revised their annual inflation expectation for 2026 upward, from 3.7% to 3.9%, above the 3.5% target. At the same time, they lowered their projection for the year-end dollar exchange rate, from G. 6,700 to G. 6,475.
The president of the Paraguayan Chamber of Supermarkets (Capasu), Gustavo Lezcano, stated that basic basket prices are stable, with no inflationary spike, and that consumers find cheaper options on the shelves, such as 15 brands of oil. He attributed the stability to the dollar exchange rate and the effects of Argentine inflation on imported goods.
Paraguay's Minister of Economy, Óscar Lovera, stated that a slowdown in tax revenues since October 2025 has caused delays in payments to suppliers for the Ministries of Public Works and Health. He attributed the crisis to the appreciation of the guarani against the dollar and external factors, but assured that structural spending has not been affected and that revenues have been recovering since March.
The strong appreciation of the guarani against the dollar, with the exchange rate near G. 6,000, is reducing the tax base on imports and pressuring revenue for the National Directorate of Tax Revenues (DNIT). Director Óscar Orué states that although import volume grew 5.2% in dollars through April, the 20.5% depreciation of the US currency caused the taxable base in guarani to fall 16.2%, mainly affecting the customs component. DNIT maintains its revenue projection for 2026, betting on strengthened oversight and better performance of internal taxes to offset losses.
An ECLAC report points out that 89% of Paraguay's public debt is external and 82% is in dollars, exposing the country to exchange rate and fiscal risks, exacerbated by low tax pressure.
The sharp depreciation of the dollar against the guarani is squeezing margins in export sectors such as fruit farming and maquila. Industry and Commerce Minister Marco Riquelme said companies are seeking to renegotiate prices abroad but acknowledged the difficulty of the strategy.
The Minister of Industry and Commerce, Marcos Riquelme, acknowledged that the sharp fall of the dollar (about 25% in one year) is compressing margins and competitiveness of local industries, especially exporters who bill in dollars but have costs in guaranis. The US currency exchange rate opened the week at G. 6,120 in the effective exchange and G. 6,096 in the interbank market.
The president of the Paraguay Importers Center (CIP), Iván Dumot, stated that the fall of the dollar has already led to price reductions in some sectors, but that the impact on the basic basket is limited due to the predominance of domestic products in the consumption of lower-income families.
Despite positive macroeconomic indicators, sectoral growth is uneven, with agro-exports and trade leading, while industry and construction advance slowly. The exchange rate and a possible minimum wage increase generate tensions.
Economist Arnold Benítez says the sharp drop in the dollar pressures revenue and the 2026 budget, while delays in payments to suppliers create a chain of problems that make the state itself more expensive. He advocates prioritizing spending quality and using mechanisms such as factoring to regularize the debt.
The Central Bank of Paraguay (BCP) celebrates April inflation at 2.3%, below the 4% target, but analyst Alejo García argues the decline is artificial, driven by a 23% appreciation of the guarani against the dollar since July 2025, not by effective monetary policy. García points to flaws in the BCP's toolkit, such as the lack of high-frequency open market operations and an 'inverted corridor' of rates, indicating structural dysfunctions.
The strong appreciation of the guarani against the dollar is squeezing profits for exporters and sectors such as construction and real estate, leading to calls for intervention and a reassessment of projects, according to analysts and trade associations.